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              | Date: 1999-06-17 
 
 Schneier über Viren, Würmer & Trojaner-.-. --.- -.-. --.- -.-. --.- -.-. --.- -.-. --.- -.-. --.-
 
 Der Kreator des Blowfish/algorithmus & anderer nützlicher
 Schriften im vorausschauenden Rückblick auf die viralen
 Ereignisse des Jahres 99.
 Bruce wird bei zwei der wichtigsten Events des Jahres,
 nämlich den Black Hat Briefings sowie der Defcon Anfang
 Juli als Redner vertreten sein.
 
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 Bruce Schneier
 Looking back from the future, 1999 will have been a pivotal
 year for malicious software: viruses, worms, and Trojan
 horses (collectively known as "malware").  It's not more
 malware; we've already seen thousands.  It's not Internet
 malware; we've seen that before, too.  But this is the first
 year we've seen malware that uses e-mail to propagate over
 the Internet and tunnel through firewalls.  And it's a really big
 deal.
 
 Viruses and worms survive by reproducing on new
 computers.  Before the Internet, computers communicated
 mostly through floppy disks.  Hence, most viruses
 propagated on floppy disks, and sometimes on computer
 bulletin board systems (BBSs).
 
 There are some obvious effects of floppies as a vector.  First,
 malware propagates slowly.  One computer shares a disk
 with another which shares a disk with five more, and over the
 course of weeks or months a virus turns
 into an epidemic.  Or maybe someone puts a virus-infected program on a bulletin board, and thousands get infected in a week or two.
 
 Second, it's easy to block disk-borne malware.  Most anti-virus programs can automatically scan all floppy disks.  Malware is blocked at the gate. BBSs can still be a problem, but many computer users are trained never to
 download software from a BBS.  Even so, anti-virus software can automatically scan new files for malware.
 
 And third, anti-viral software can easily deal with the problem.  It's easy to write software to block malware you know about.  You simply have the anti-virus scanner search for bit strings that signify the virus (called
 a "signature") and then execute the automatic program to delete the virus and restore normalcy.  This deletion routine is unique per virus, but it is not hard to develop.  Anti-viral software has tens of thousands of sign
 atures, each tuned to a particular virus.  Companies release them within a day of learning of a new virus.  And as long as viruses propagate slowly, this is good enough.  My software automatically updates itself once a mo
 nth.  Until 1999, that was enough.
 
 What's new in 1999 is e-mail propagation of malware.  These programs -- the Melissa virus and its variants, the Worm.ExploreZip worm and its inevitable variants, etc. -- arrive via e-mail and use e-mail features in modern
 software to replicate themselves across the network.  They mail themselves to people known to the infected host, enticing the recipients to open or run them.  They don't propagate over weeks and months; they propagate in
 seconds.  Anti-viral software cannot possibly keep up.
 
 And e-mail is everywhere.  It runs over Internet connections that block everything else.  It tunnels through all firewalls.  Everyone uses it.
 
 It's easy to point fingers at Microsoft.  Melissa uses features in Microsoft Word (and variants use Excel) to automatically e-mail itself to others, and Melissa and Worm.ExploreZip make use of the automatic mail features
 of Microsoft Outlook.  Microsoft is certainly to blame for
 creating the powerful macro capabilities of Word and Excel,
 blurring the distinction between executable files (which can
 be dangerous) and data files (which, before now, were safe).
 They will be to blame when Outlook 2000, which supports
 HTML, makes it possible for users to be attacked by HTML-
 based malware simply by opening an e-mail.  Microsoft set
 the security state-of-the-art back 25 years with DOS, and
 they have continued that legacy to this day.  They certainly
 have a lot to answer for, but the meta-problem is more subtle.
 
 One problem is the permissive nature of the Internet and the
 computers attached to it.  As long as a program has the
 ability to do anything on the computer it is running on,
 malware will be incredibly dangerous.  Just as firewalls
 protect different computers on the same network, we're going
 to need something similar to protect different processes
 running on the same computer.
 
 This cannot be stopped at the firewall.  This type of malware
 tunnels through a firewall using e-mail, and then pops up on
 the inside and does damage.  So far the examples have been
 mild, but they represent a proof of concept.  And the
 effectiveness of firewalls will diminish as we open up more
 services (e-mail, Web, etc.), as we add increasingly complex
 applications on the internal net, and as crackers catch on.
 This "tunnel-inside-and-play" technique will only get worse.
 
 And anti-virus software can't help much.  If a virus can infect
 1.2 million computers (one estimate of Melissa infections) in
 the hours before a fix is released, that's a lot of damage.
 What if the code took pains to hide itself, so that a virus
 won't be discovered for a couple of days? What if a worm just
 targeted an individual; it would delete itself off any computer
 whose userID didn't match a certain reference? How long
 would it take before that one is discovered? What if it e-
 mailed a copy of the user's login script (most contain
 passwords) to an anonymous e-mail box before self-erasing?
 What if it automatically encrypted outgoing copies of itself
 with PGP or S/MIME? Or signed itself; signing keys are often
 left lying around the system.  Even a few minutes of thinking
 about this yields some pretty scary possibilities.
 
 It's impossible to push the problem off onto users with "do
 you trust this message/macro/application" messages.  Sure,
 it's unwise to run executables from strangers, but both
 Melissa and Worm.ExploreZip arrive pretending to be friends
 and associates of the recipient.  Worm.ExploreZip even
 replied to real subject lines.  Users can't make good security
 decisions under ideal conditions; they don't stand a chance
 against a virus capable of social engineering.
 
 What we're seeing here is the convergence of several
 problems: the permissiveness of networks, interconnections
 between applications on modern operating systems, e-mail
 as a vector to tunnel through network defenses and as a
 means to spread extremely rapidly, and the traditional
 naivete of users.  Simple patches won't fix this.  There are
 some interesting technologies on the horizon that try to
 mimic the body's own immune system to automatically deal
 with unknown malware, but I am not very optimistic about
 them.  Sure they'll catch some things, but it will always be
 possible to design malware specifically to defeat the immune
 systems.  A large distributed system that communicates at
 the speed of light is going to have to accept the reality of viral
 infections at the speed of light.  Unless security is designed
 into the system from the bottom up, we're constantly going to
 be fighting a holding action.
 
 Source
 http://www.counterpane.com
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 edited by Harkank
 published on: 1999-06-17
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